Hazard Management and Governance
Effective hazard management requires coordinated action across prediction, protection, and preparation. This lesson examines the strategies, technologies, and governance frameworks that shape how societies manage natural hazards, from local community resilience to international cooperation.
The Three Ps: Prediction, Protection, Preparation
Prediction
The ability to forecast when, where, and how severe a hazard will be:
| Hazard | Predictability | Methods |
|---|
| Volcanic eruptions | Moderate to good (days to weeks) | Seismometers, tiltmeters, gas monitoring, satellite InSAR, thermal imaging |
| Earthquakes | Very poor (cannot predict timing) | Probabilistic seismic hazard maps; GPS monitoring of strain accumulation; no reliable short-term prediction |
| Tropical storms | Good (3–5 days track forecast) | Satellite imagery, weather buoys, aircraft reconnaissance, numerical weather prediction models |
| Tsunamis | Good (once triggered) | Seismometers detect the earthquake; DART buoys detect ocean pressure changes; warnings can be issued minutes to hours before arrival |
| Drought | Moderate | Climate models, ENSO monitoring, soil moisture sensors, satellite vegetation indices |
Key Point: Earthquakes remain essentially unpredictable in the short term. Despite decades of research, no reliable method exists to forecast the specific time and location of an earthquake days or hours in advance.
Protection (Mitigation)
Physical measures to reduce the impact of hazards:
- Building codes — seismic-resistant design (base isolation, cross-bracing, reinforced concrete); Japan's Building Standards Act requires all new buildings to withstand intense shaking
- Sea walls and levees — protect against storm surge and tsunamis; Japan has invested billions in coastal defences following the 2011 Tōhoku disaster (some walls now 15 m high)
- Flood defences — embankments, retention basins, managed retreat; the Thames Barrier protects London from storm surge flooding
- Land-use planning — zoning laws that restrict development in high-risk areas (flood plains, lahar zones, fault lines); often politically difficult to enforce
- Afforestation and mangrove restoration — natural buffers reduce wave energy, stabilise slopes, and absorb rainfall; mangroves can reduce wave height by 60–80%
- Fire breaks and controlled burning — reduce wildfire fuel loads
Preparation
Actions taken before an event to reduce vulnerability:
- Education and drills — Japan conducts annual earthquake drills on 1 September (anniversary of the 1923 Great Kantō earthquake); the Philippines includes disaster risk reduction in the school curriculum
- Warning systems — Japan's J-Alert system broadcasts earthquake early warnings via TV, radio, and mobile phones within seconds; the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (established 2006) operates across 28 countries
- Emergency supplies — governments stockpile food, water, medicine, and temporary shelter materials
- Evacuation planning — designated routes and shelters; community awareness of tsunami evacuation zones
- Insurance — transfers financial risk; in the UK, Flood Re provides affordable flood insurance for high-risk properties
Technology in Hazard Management
GIS (Geographic Information Systems)
GIS technology is used extensively in hazard management:
- Hazard mapping — overlaying geological, topographical, and demographic data to identify at-risk areas
- Real-time monitoring — integrating seismic, meteorological, and satellite data to track developing hazards
- Emergency response — mapping affected areas, identifying accessible routes, coordinating aid distribution
- Recovery planning — assessing damage, planning reconstruction, updating risk maps
Remote Sensing and Satellite Technology