Water Stress and Security
This lesson examines water as a critical resource, exploring the concepts of water stress and scarcity, water conflicts, management strategies, and the growing challenge of ensuring water security in a changing world. This content is central to AQA A-Level Geography Paper 2 resource security topics.
Water: A Vital Resource
- Water covers approximately 71% of the Earth's surface, but only 2.5% is freshwater
- Of that freshwater, approximately 69% is locked in ice caps and glaciers, 30% is groundwater, and less than 1% is available as surface water (rivers, lakes)
- Agriculture accounts for approximately 70% of global freshwater withdrawals
- Industry uses approximately 19% and domestic use accounts for approximately 11%
- Global water demand has increased sixfold over the past century and continues to rise
Water Stress and Water Scarcity
Definitions
| Term | Definition | Threshold |
|---|
| Water stress | Demand for water approaches or exceeds sustainable supply | < 1,700 m³ per person per year |
| Water scarcity | Insufficient water to meet demand | < 1,000 m³ per person per year |
| Absolute water scarcity | Severe shortage threatening survival and development | < 500 m³ per person per year |
Physical vs Economic Water Scarcity
| Physical Water Scarcity | Economic Water Scarcity |
|---|
| Natural water resources are insufficient to meet demand | Water exists but lacks infrastructure to access and distribute it |
| Found in arid and semi-arid regions | Found in regions with adequate rainfall but poor investment |
| Examples: Middle East, North Africa, Central Asia | Examples: sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South-East Asia |
| Solutions: desalination, water transfer, demand management | Solutions: investment in infrastructure, governance, institutions |
The Water Stress Index
The Falkenmark Water Stress Indicator classifies countries by per capita water availability:
- By 2025, an estimated 1.8 billion people will live in regions with absolute water scarcity
- By 2050, over half the world's population could face water stress
- Climate change is expected to intensify water stress through altered precipitation patterns and increased evaporation
Water Conflict
Water resources that cross international borders are a potential source of conflict. There are 263 transboundary river basins globally, shared by two or more countries.
The Nile Basin
Countries involved: 11 countries, primarily Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia
The Dispute:
- Egypt depends on the Nile for approximately 97% of its water supply
- The 1929 and 1959 Nile Waters Agreements allocated the vast majority of Nile flow to Egypt and Sudan, without consulting upstream countries
- Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), under construction since 2011, is a 6,450 MW hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile
- Egypt fears the dam will reduce its water supply, particularly during the filling period
- Ethiopia argues it has the right to develop its own water resources for energy and development
Current Status:
- Negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have been ongoing but without a binding agreement
- The African Union has mediated talks
- The dispute illustrates the tension between upstream development rights and downstream dependency
- Risk of conflict, though most analysts believe diplomatic solutions are more likely
The Jordan River Basin
Countries involved: Israel, Jordan, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon
The Dispute:
- The Jordan River basin is one of the world's most water-stressed regions
- Israel controls the headwaters (Golan Heights) and the largest freshwater lake (Sea of Galilee/Lake Kinneret)
- Palestinian access to water in the West Bank is severely restricted; per capita water consumption is approximately 73 litres per day compared to approximately 300 litres for Israeli settlers
- Jordan receives water from the Yarmouk River (tributary of the Jordan) but this has been reduced by upstream extraction by Syria
- The Dead Sea is shrinking at approximately 1 metre per year due to reduced inflows
Water as a Political Issue:
- Water allocation was a key issue in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations
- The 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty included water-sharing provisions
- Proposed Red Sea-Dead Sea canal to transfer water and generate energy
The Aral Sea
Background:
- Once the world's fourth-largest lake (68,000 km²), the Aral Sea has lost approximately 90% of its volume since the 1960s
- The Soviet Union diverted the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers for cotton irrigation in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan
Consequences:
- Fishing industry collapsed (employed 60,000 people)
- Exposed seabed created salt and dust storms carrying pesticide residues
- Climate became more extreme (hotter summers, colder winters)
- Public health crisis: increased respiratory disease, cancer, and infant mortality
- Ecological disaster: loss of biodiversity and habitat
Partial Recovery:
- The Kok-Aral Dam (completed 2005) separated the North Aral Sea and allowed partial refilling
- The North Aral Sea has risen by several metres and fishing has partially recovered
- The South Aral Sea continues to shrink and is likely irreversible
Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)
IWRM is a process that promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land, and related resources to maximise economic and social welfare equitably without compromising environmental sustainability.