Major and the End of Conservative Dominance 1990–1997

John Major's premiership (November 1990–May 1997) has often been overshadowed by the towering figures of Thatcher before him and Blair after. Yet Major's government dealt with genuinely significant events — the Gulf War, the Maastricht Treaty, Black Wednesday, the Northern Ireland peace process — and its ignominious collapse in 1997 reshaped British politics for a generation. Major was a conciliator by temperament in a party that was tearing itself apart over Europe.

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Major's Background and Rise

Key Fact	Detail
Background	Born in Brixton, 1943; left school at 16 without A-levels; worked in banking and insurance; elected MP for Huntingdon in 1979
Rapid rise	Foreign Secretary (July–October 1989), then Chancellor (October 1989–November 1990) — held two of the great offices of state for a total of only 16 months before becoming PM
Leadership election	Won the second ballot of the November 1990 leadership contest with 185 votes to Michael Heseltine's 131 and Douglas Hurd's 56. Heseltine and Hurd withdrew, and Major became PM on 28 November 1990
Style	Deliberately contrasted with Thatcher — he spoke of creating a "classless society" and restoring "a country at ease with itself"

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The Gulf War (1991)

Aspect	Detail
Background	Iraq invaded Kuwait on 2 August 1990. A US-led coalition (including 45,000 British troops) assembled in Saudi Arabia
British contribution	1st Armoured Division deployed; RAF flew combat missions
Ground war	The coalition ground offensive lasted 100 hours (24–28 February 1991), liberating Kuwait. British casualties: 47 killed
Political impact	Major handled the crisis competently, maintaining the transatlantic alliance and securing UN authorisation. The war boosted his personal standing

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The 1992 General Election

The election of 9 April 1992 was one of the great upsets in British electoral history:

Aspect	Detail
Polls	Most polls predicted a Labour victory or a hung parliament. Labour under Neil Kinnock appeared confident
Result	Conservatives won 336 seats (Labour 271), with 41.9% of the vote — 14 million votes, the highest total ever achieved by a British political party
Key factors	Tax (Labour's "shadow budget" and the Conservatives' "Labour's Tax Bombshell" poster); Kinnock's triumphalist Sheffield Rally (widely seen as premature); Major's "soapbox" campaign; and, more fundamentally, voters' reluctance to trust Labour with the economy after the Winter of Discontent and the 1992 recession

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Black Wednesday (16 September 1992)

Background

Britain had joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) on 8 October 1990, at a rate of DM2.95 to the pound. The ERM required member currencies to maintain their exchange rates within narrow bands. Many economists, including Alan Walters (Thatcher's former economic adviser), argued that the rate was too high.

The Crisis

Phase	Detail
Pressure	Reunification had led the Bundesbank to raise German interest rates, forcing other ERM members to follow. Sterling came under intense speculative pressure — George Soros's Quantum Fund was among those betting against the pound
Defence	On 16 September, the Treasury spent approximately £3.4 billion of foreign exchange reserves buying sterling. Interest rates were raised from 10% to 12%, and then to 15% (the second increase was announced but never implemented)
Withdrawal	By 7:30pm, it was clear that the defence had failed. Britain withdrew from the ERM. Sterling fell to DM2.20 — a devaluation of approximately 25%
Cost	The Treasury estimated the direct cost at approximately £3.4 billion in wasted intervention. The true cost is debated — the economy subsequently performed well outside the ERM, suggesting that membership at DM2.95 had been damaging

Historiographical Debate: Philip Stephens (Politics and the Pound, 1996) provides the authoritative account, arguing that ERM entry at DM2.95 was a mistake compounded by the refusal to realign. Norman Lamont (Chancellor at the time) later claimed that he was "singing in the bath" on the evening of Black Wednesday — arguing that ERM exit was economically beneficial, even if politically disastrous. The key historical judgement is that Black Wednesday destroyed the Conservatives' reputation for economic competence — a reputation that had been their greatest electoral asset since 1979.

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The Maastricht Treaty and European Division

The Treaty

The Treaty on European Union (signed at Maastricht, 7 February 1992) created the European Union, established the path to a single currency (the euro), and introduced EU citizenship. Major negotiated two opt-outs: