Case Study: Recent UK General Elections (2017, 2019, 2024)

This final lesson applies the theories and concepts from the course to three recent UK general elections, providing detailed case study analysis suitable for examination essays.

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The 2017 General Election

Context

• Theresa May called a snap election to strengthen her mandate for Brexit negotiations
• She began with a 20+ point lead in the polls over Jeremy Corbyn's Labour
• The Fixed-term Parliaments Act required a two-thirds majority in the Commons to trigger the election

Result

Party	Seats	Change	Vote %
Conservative	318	-13	42.4%
Labour	262	+30	40.0%
SNP	35	-21	3.0%
Lib Dems	12	+4	7.4%

May lost her majority and was forced to rely on a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP.

Key Factors

Why did the Conservatives lose their majority?

• The "dementia tax" manifesto pledge on social care provoked a backlash and forced a U-turn, damaging May's image of "strong and stable" leadership
• May ran a poor campaign — she was robotic, refused to participate in TV debates, and struggled in media appearances
• Jeremy Corbyn exceeded expectations — his energised campaign, social media presence, and clear policy messages (abolish tuition fees, invest in the NHS) mobilised young voters
• The two-party vote share rose to 82.4% — the highest since 1970 — suggesting Brexit had reinforced the two-party system

Voting behaviour analysis:

• Age: The age divide was stark — 18–24-year-olds voted overwhelmingly for Labour (estimated 60%+)
• Brexit: Leave/Remain identity was a powerful predictor — Leave areas shifted to Conservative, Remain areas to Labour
• Valence: May's leadership ratings collapsed during the campaign; Corbyn's improved
• Issue voting: Brexit was the dominant issue, but Labour's domestic policy pledges also resonated

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The 2019 General Election

Context

• Boris Johnson had become PM in July 2019 and was unable to pass his Brexit deal through Parliament
• He called an election on the slogan "Get Brexit Done"
• Jeremy Corbyn remained Labour leader, with Labour's position on Brexit seen as ambiguous
• The Brexit Party (later Reform UK) stood down in Conservative-held seats, consolidating the Leave vote

Result

Party	Seats	Change	Vote %
Conservative	365	+47	43.6%
Labour	202	-60	32.1%
SNP	48	+13	3.9%
Lib Dems	11	-1	11.6%

Johnson won an 80-seat majority — the largest Conservative majority since 1987.

Key Factors

Why did the Conservatives win so decisively?

• Brexit: Johnson's clear, simple message ("Get Brexit Done") united Leave voters. Labour's ambiguous position (offering a second referendum) alienated Leave supporters without fully winning back Remainers.
• The Red Wall collapse: The Conservatives won dozens of traditionally Labour seats in northern England and the Midlands (e.g. Blyth Valley, Bolsover, Bishop Auckland) — seats that had been Labour since their creation
• Leadership: Boris Johnson, despite controversy, was seen as a more decisive and charismatic leader than Corbyn. Corbyn's personal ratings were historically low.
• Labour's internal divisions: Allegations of antisemitism, the Corbyn leadership's unpopularity with centrist voters, and the party's leftward shift all contributed

Voting behaviour analysis:

• Class dealignment: The Red Wall result dramatically illustrated class dealignment — many working-class, non-graduate voters chose the Conservatives
• Education divide: Graduates leaned Labour; non-graduates leaned Conservative
• Age: The age divide remained strong — young people voted Labour; older people voted Conservative
• Region: Scotland swung further to the SNP; northern England swung to the Conservatives; London remained Labour
• Valence: The Conservatives won on the key valence issues of Brexit delivery and leadership

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The 2024 General Election

Context

• After Johnson's resignation (Partygate), Liz Truss's 45-day premiership and the mini-budget market crisis, and Rishi Sunak's efforts to stabilise the government, the Conservatives faced a deeply hostile electoral environment
• Cost of living crisis, NHS waiting lists, and political fatigue after 14 years of Conservative rule
• Keir Starmer had repositioned Labour towards the centre, emphasising change and competence
• Reform UK, under Nigel Farage, re-entered the contest and attracted significant right-wing support

Result