Issue Voting and Valence Politics

This lesson examines two key models of voting behaviour: issue voting and valence politics, which have become increasingly important as traditional class and partisan loyalties have declined.

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What is Issue Voting?

Issue voting occurs when voters choose a party based on its position on specific policy issues rather than out of class loyalty or habitual partisan identity.

Types of Issues

Type	Definition	Example
Position issues	Issues where parties hold genuinely different positions	Immigration (restrict vs. welcome), Brexit (Leave vs. Remain), nationalisation (public vs. private ownership)
Valence issues	Issues where all parties agree on the goal but differ on competence	The economy (all want growth), the NHS (all want it to work), crime (all want less)

When Does Issue Voting Increase?

Issue voting becomes more important when:

• Class and partisan alignment are weak (as in modern UK politics)
• A single issue dominates the election (e.g. Brexit in 2017 and 2019)
• Parties take clearly different positions on a salient issue
• Media coverage focuses on specific policy debates

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Brexit as the Ultimate Issue Vote

The 2016 EU referendum and subsequent elections demonstrated the power of issue voting:

• In 2017 and 2019, Leave/Remain identity became a stronger predictor of voting than social class
• Leave voters overwhelmingly supported the Conservatives (especially under Boris Johnson)
• Remain voters split between Labour, the Lib Dems, and the Greens
• The SNP attracted Remain voters in Scotland
• Brexit cut across traditional class and party lines, creating a new political cleavage

The Impact on Party Support

Voter Group	2017 Tendency	2019 Tendency
Leave voters	~60% Conservative	~74% Conservative
Remain voters	Split (Labour, Lib Dem, Green)	~53% Labour, ~21% Lib Dem

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What is Valence Politics?

Valence politics is a model of voting behaviour developed by David Sanders and colleagues, building on the work of Donald Stokes. It argues that elections are decided not primarily by policy positions but by voters' assessments of:

1. Economic competence: Which party is best trusted to manage the economy?
2. Leadership: Which leader is most capable, trustworthy, and prime ministerial?
3. Party unity: Is the party united or divided?
4. Governing performance: Has the government delivered on its promises?

Why Valence Matters

On most issues, voters agree on the desired outcome (more NHS funding, economic growth, lower crime). The question is not what they want but who they trust to deliver it. This is a valence judgement.

Key Valence Factors