When to Guess and Move On

One of the most important — and psychologically difficult — skills in Section A is knowing when to guess and move on. Many candidates waste valuable minutes wrestling with questions they are unlikely to answer correctly, at the cost of marks they could have earned elsewhere. This lesson explains the mathematics of guessing, the psychology behind reluctance to guess, and practical strategies for making quick, effective guesses.

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The Mathematics of Guessing

The LNAT has no negative marking. This single fact changes everything about your guessing strategy.

Expected Value of a Guess

Each multiple-choice question has either 4 or 5 answer options. If you guess randomly:

Number of Options	Probability of Guessing Correctly	Expected Marks per Guess
4 options	25%	0.25
5 options	20%	0.20

Now compare this to the expected value of leaving a question blank:

Strategy	Expected Marks
Random guess (4 options)	0.25
Random guess (5 options)	0.20
Leaving it blank	0.00

A random guess is always better than a blank. Always.