When to Guess and Move On

One of the most important — and psychologically difficult — skills in Section A is knowing when to guess and move on. Many candidates waste valuable minutes wrestling with questions they are unlikely to answer correctly, at the cost of marks they could have earned elsewhere. This lesson explains the mathematics of guessing, the psychology behind reluctance to guess, and practical strategies for making quick, effective guesses.

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The Mathematics of Guessing

The LNAT has no negative marking. This single fact changes everything about your guessing strategy.

Expected Value of a Guess

Each multiple-choice question has either 4 or 5 answer options. If you guess randomly:

Number of Options	Probability of Guessing Correctly	Expected Marks per Guess
4 options	25%	0.25
5 options	20%	0.20

Now compare this to the expected value of leaving a question blank:

Strategy	Expected Marks
Random guess (4 options)	0.25
Random guess (5 options)	0.20
Leaving it blank	0.00

A random guess is always better than a blank. Always.

Educated Guessing Is Even Better

If you can eliminate even one wrong answer, your expected value increases significantly:

Options Eliminated	Remaining Options	Probability of Correct Guess
0 (pure guess)	4	25%
1 eliminated	3	33%
2 eliminated	2	50%

Key Principle: Eliminating even one option before guessing raises your probability from 25% to 33%. Eliminating two raises it to 50%. Spend 20–30 seconds eliminating obviously wrong answers, then guess from the remainder.

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The Cost of Not Guessing

Let us quantify the cost of spending too long on a single question.

Scenario: Spending 4 Minutes on One Hard Question

Assume you spend 4 minutes on a difficult question instead of the target 90 seconds. That extra 2.5 minutes could have been used to answer approximately 1–2 questions on a later passage. Here is the comparison:

Strategy	Marks from Hard Question	Marks from Later Questions	Total Expected Marks
Spend 4 minutes on hard question	Maybe 1 (50% chance)	0 (no time for them)	~0.5
Guess on hard question, spend time on later questions	Maybe 1 (25% random guess)	1–2 (high chance if passage is manageable)	~1.5–2.25

The second strategy yields roughly three to four times the expected marks. The mathematics is overwhelming: guessing and moving on is almost always the better strategy.

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When Should You Guess?

Definite Guess Situations

You should guess immediately and move on when:

1. You have no idea what the passage is about after two reads of the relevant section
2. All four options seem equally plausible — this usually means you have misunderstood the question or the passage
3. You have spent 90+ seconds and are no closer to the answer than when you started
4. The question asks about a specific detail you simply cannot locate in the passage
5. You are behind on your pacing checkpoints — guessing is better than falling further behind

Partial Knowledge Guess Situations

You should make an educated guess (eliminate and guess) when:

1. You can eliminate 1–2 options but cannot decide between the remainder
2. You think you know the answer but are not confident — select it and flag for review
3. The question wording is confusing but you understand the passage — try to interpret the question as simply as possible, answer, and flag

Do Not Guess Yet Situations

You should spend a bit more time when:

1. You understand the passage well and the question is asking something specific — the answer is probably there; you just need to find the right section
2. You are ahead of pace and have time to spare
3. You have narrowed it to two options and can see a way to distinguish between them by re-reading a specific sentence

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The Psychology of Guessing

Why Candidates Resist Guessing