Energy Security and Geopolitics

This lesson examines energy security as a geopolitical concept, the resource curse, petrostates, energy as a political weapon, conflict over energy resources, and energy poverty. It addresses the Edexcel A-Level Geography (9GE0) specification, Topic 6, Enquiry Question: "What role does energy play in the carbon cycle?" and "What are the consequences of increasing demand for energy?"

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Defining Energy Security

Energy security is the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price (IEA definition). It has multiple dimensions:

Dimension	Description	Example
Availability	Physical access to energy supplies	Does the country have domestic reserves or reliable imports?
Affordability	Energy is priced so that consumers and industry can access it	Are energy prices stable, or subject to volatile swings?
Reliability	Supply is consistent and uninterrupted	Are supply chains vulnerable to disruption (conflict, weather, politics)?
Sustainability	Energy supply does not cause unacceptable environmental damage	Is the energy mix compatible with climate targets?

Factors Affecting Energy Security

Factor	Effect on Energy Security
Domestic reserves	Countries with large reserves (Saudi Arabia, USA, Russia) are more energy-secure
Import dependence	High import dependence = vulnerability (Japan imports ~90% of energy)
Diversity of supply	Diversified energy mix and supply routes reduce risk
Infrastructure	Reliable grid, pipelines, ports, and storage are essential
Geopolitical stability	Supply from conflict zones (Iraq, Libya) is unreliable
Investment	Sustained investment in extraction, refining, and distribution maintains supply
Technology	Innovation can unlock new resources (fracking) or alternatives (renewables)
Climate policy	Transition to renewables can enhance long-term security but may create short-term disruption

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Energy-Rich vs Energy-Poor Nations

Energy-Rich Nations

Countries with abundant domestic energy resources often wield significant geopolitical influence:

Country	Key Resources	Geopolitical Significance
Saudi Arabia	Oil (267 bn barrels proven reserves)	De facto OPEC leader; key US ally; swing producer — can increase/decrease production to influence prices
Russia	Oil (107 bn barrels), gas (48 tcm — world's largest)	Europe's former largest gas supplier; energy as geopolitical lever (see below)
USA	Oil, gas (shale revolution), coal	Became world's largest oil producer (2018) and net energy exporter (2019); reduced dependence on Middle East
Qatar	Gas (world's 3rd largest reserves); LNG leader	Tiny nation with outsized influence due to LNG exports; hosts US military base
Australia	Coal, LNG, uranium, solar potential	Major exporter to East Asia; tensions with China over coal imports (2020–23 ban)
Norway	Oil, gas (North Sea)	Government Pension Fund ($1.7 trillion) funded by oil revenues; model of resource management

Energy-Poor Nations

Countries lacking domestic energy resources face distinct challenges:

Country	Energy Situation	Consequences
Japan	Imports ~90% of energy; no significant oil, gas or coal	Vulnerable to supply disruption; Fukushima led to increased fossil fuel imports and energy costs
South Korea	Imports ~92% of energy	Heavy nuclear reliance; strategic petroleum reserves; actively diversifying LNG suppliers
Sub-Saharan Africa	~600 million people lack electricity access	Energy poverty limits economic development, healthcare, education; reliance on biomass (wood, dung) for cooking causes ~400,000 premature deaths/year from indoor air pollution
Bangladesh	Limited domestic gas; growing demand	Power cuts common; relies on imported LNG; vulnerable to price shocks

Exam Tip: When comparing energy-rich and energy-poor nations, always link to development outcomes. Energy access correlates strongly with GDP per capita, life expectancy, literacy and HDI. Countries with energy poverty have lower development — this is a key geographical relationship.

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The Resource Curse

The resource curse (also called the "paradox of plenty") describes the observation that countries with abundant natural resource wealth (especially oil and gas) often experience slower economic growth, higher inequality, weaker governance and more conflict than resource-poor countries.

Mechanisms of the Resource Curse

Mechanism	Explanation	Example
Dutch Disease	Resource exports strengthen the national currency, making other exports (manufacturing, agriculture) uncompetitive	Nigeria — oil wealth devastated previously competitive agriculture and manufacturing sectors
Rent-seeking	Elites capture resource revenues for personal gain rather than public investment	Equatorial Guinea — GDP per capita $8,000 but 70% of population lives below poverty line
Weak institutions	Resource wealth reduces incentives to build effective taxation, governance and accountability systems	Angola — billions in oil revenues disappeared through corruption
Conflict	Control of resources motivates civil war and insurgency	Nigeria (Niger Delta militants), South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo
Lack of diversification	Economy becomes dependent on a single commodity; vulnerable to price crashes	Venezuela — oil accounts for ~95% of export earnings; economic collapse when prices fell
Volatility	Resource revenues fluctuate with global commodity prices, destabilising budgets	Saudi Arabia — budget requires oil at ~$80/barrel to balance; surplus at$80/barreltobalance;surplusat100, deficit at $60

Escaping the Resource Curse: Norway

Norway is the most frequently cited example of a resource-rich country that has avoided the resource curse:

Strategy	Detail
Government Pension Fund Global	Established 1990; invests oil revenues globally; valued at ~$1.7 trillion (2024); saves wealth for future generations
Strict fiscal rules	Only ~3% of the fund's value can be spent annually — preventing excessive government spending
Democratic governance	Transparent, accountable institutions that prevent elite capture
Economic diversification	Norway has maintained competitive fishing, shipping, technology and service sectors alongside oil
Environmental commitment	Despite being a major oil exporter, Norway leads in EV adoption (~80% of new car sales are electric)