Superpowers and Geopolitical Stability

This lesson examines how superpowers shape geopolitical stability and instability through alliances, proxy wars, nuclear deterrence, peacekeeping and the creation of spheres of influence. You will analyse whether superpowers are forces for stability or sources of conflict, and how the changing balance of power affects global security. This lesson addresses the Edexcel Enquiry Question: "What are the implications of the changing balance of power for the future of the global order?"

---

Alliances and Military Blocs

Military alliances are formal agreements between states to provide mutual defence. They are a primary mechanism through which superpowers project power, deter adversaries and maintain spheres of influence.

NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)

NATO, discussed in Lesson 4, is the world's most powerful military alliance:

• 32 members (2024), representing over 55% of global GDP and approximately 55% of global military spending.
• Article 5 (collective defence) has been invoked once — after 9/11 in 2001.
• NATO's nuclear deterrent includes approximately 5,500 warheads (mostly American).
• NATO expansion has been a major source of tension with Russia. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly cited NATO's eastward expansion as a key driver of Russian insecurity and a justification for the invasion of Ukraine.

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)

The SCO was founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It has since expanded to include India, Pakistan and Iran.

• The SCO focuses on security cooperation, counter-terrorism and economic coordination in Central and South Asia.
• It conducts regular military exercises (e.g. "Peace Mission" exercises involving Chinese and Russian forces).
• The SCO represents a counter-alliance to Western-dominated security structures, though it is far less integrated than NATO.

Comparing NATO and SCO

Feature	NATO	SCO
Founded	1949	2001
Members	32	10 (including India, Iran)
Combined GDP ($ trillion)	~45	~25
Military spending ($ billion)	~1,200	~450
Integrated command structure	Yes (SACEUR)	No
Collective defence clause	Yes (Article 5)	No formal equivalent
Nuclear powers	3 (USA, UK, France)	4 (Russia, China, India, Pakistan)
Primary focus	Collective defence, crisis management	Counter-terrorism, regional stability

Exam Tip: Comparing NATO and the SCO is an effective way to illustrate the shift towards multipolarity. NATO remains far more powerful and integrated, but the SCO's membership (including nuclear powers and over 40% of the world's population) demonstrates that alternative security architectures are emerging.

---

Proxy Wars

A proxy war is a conflict in which superpowers support opposing sides without fighting each other directly. Proxy wars allow superpowers to compete for influence while avoiding the catastrophic risk of direct confrontation.

Cold War Proxy Wars

• Korean War (1950–53): USA/UN supported South Korea; USSR/China supported North Korea. Resulted in the division of Korea that persists today. Approximately 2.5 million casualties.
• Vietnam War (1955–75): USA supported South Vietnam; USSR/China supported North Vietnam. American withdrawal in 1975 was a major blow to US prestige.
• Soviet-Afghan War (1979–89): USSR invaded Afghanistan; USA funded and armed mujahideen fighters through Pakistan's ISI. Soviet withdrawal contributed to the USSR's collapse. The mujahideen later fractured, with some forming the Taliban and others Al-Qaeda.
• Angola (1975–2002): USSR/Cuba supported the MPLA government; USA/South Africa supported UNITA rebels. Approximately 500,000 deaths over 27 years.

Post-Cold War Proxy Conflicts

Proxy wars did not end with the Cold War. Contemporary examples include:

• Syria (2011–present): Russia and Iran support the Assad regime; the USA, Turkey and Gulf states supported various opposition groups. An estimated 500,000+ deaths and 13 million displaced.
• Yemen (2014–present): Saudi Arabia (with US support) intervenes against Houthi rebels (backed by Iran). One of the world's worst humanitarian crises — approximately 150,000+ direct conflict deaths and 377,000 total deaths from conflict and its consequences.
• Ukraine (2014–present): Russia supports separatists in eastern Ukraine (2014) and then launches a full-scale invasion (2022). The USA and NATO provide weapons, intelligence and financial support to Ukraine without deploying combat troops — making it arguably a proxy war between Russia and the West.

graph TB
    A["SUPERPOWER A<br/>(or alliance)"] -->|"Weapons, funding,<br/>intelligence, training"| B["Proxy Force /<br/>Ally Government"]
    C["SUPERPOWER B<br/>(or alliance)"] -->|"Weapons, funding,<br/>intelligence, training"| D["Opposing Proxy Force /<br/>Ally Government"]
    B <-->|"ARMED CONFLICT<br/>Direct fighting"| D
    A -.->|"NO DIRECT<br/>COMBAT"| C

    style A fill:#1565c0,color:#fff
    style C fill:#c62828,color:#fff
    style B fill:#42a5f5,color:#fff
    style D fill:#ef5350,color:#fff

---

Nuclear Deterrence and the Arms Race

Nuclear weapons are the ultimate expression of military hard power. The doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) held during the Cold War that neither the USA nor the USSR would launch a nuclear first strike because doing so would guarantee their own destruction in a retaliatory strike.

Current Nuclear Arsenals (2024)

Country	Estimated Warheads	Delivery Systems
Russia	5,580	ICBMs, SLBMs, strategic bombers
USA	5,044	ICBMs, SLBMs, strategic bombers (nuclear triad)
China	~500 (growing rapidly)	ICBMs, SLBMs, strategic bombers
France	290	SLBMs, air-launched missiles
UK	225	SLBMs (Trident)
Pakistan	~170	Missiles, aircraft
India	~172	Missiles, aircraft, submarines
Israel	~90 (undeclared)	Missiles, aircraft, submarines (suspected)
North Korea	~50	Missiles (reliability uncertain)

Has Nuclear Deterrence Kept the Peace?

Arguments for: Nuclear deterrence has prevented direct war between great powers since 1945 — the longest such peace in modern history. The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) demonstrated that even in extreme tension, MAD prevented nuclear war.