The Rise of New Superpowers

This lesson examines the emergence of new superpowers in the 21st century, focusing on China, India and Russia. You will analyse the factors driving their rise, the evidence for a shift towards multipolarity, and the implications for the global balance of power. This lesson addresses the Edexcel Enquiry Question: "What are the implications of the changing balance of power for the future of the global order?"

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The Shift Towards Multipolarity

The post-Cold War unipolar era, dominated by the USA, is increasingly seen as giving way to a multipolar world order in which power is distributed among several major states. The key drivers of this shift include:

• China's economic transformation — the most dramatic economic growth story in human history
• India's emergence as a major economic and demographic power
• Russia's reassertion of geopolitical influence through military action
• The formation of new coalitions (BRICS, SCO) that challenge Western-dominated institutions
• Relative decline of the USA — not in absolute terms, but in its share of global economic output and influence

Exam Tip: The question of whether the world is unipolar, bipolar or multipolar is actively debated. For top marks, acknowledge the complexity: the USA remains the sole state meeting all traditional superpower criteria, but China is closing the gap rapidly, and other powers (Russia, India, the EU) exercise significant influence. The best answer is that the world is in transition.

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China: The Primary Challenger

China's rise from a poor, isolated agrarian country to the world's second-largest economy is the most significant geopolitical development since the end of the Cold War.

Economic Transformation

Indicator	1980	2000	2023
GDP ($ trillion, current)	0.31	1.21	17.7
GDP per capita ($)	312	959	12,541
Share of world GDP (%)	~2.7	~3.6	~18
Urban population (%)	19	36	65
Population in extreme poverty (%)	88	40	<1
Exports ($ billion)	18	249	3,380

China's economic growth since 1978 has been driven by Deng Xiaoping's "Reform and Opening Up" policy, which combined:

1. Special Economic Zones (SEZs): Designated areas (Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shantou, Xiamen) where foreign investment was welcomed, taxes were low and regulations relaxed. Shenzhen grew from a fishing village of 30,000 in 1980 to a megacity of 18 million by 2024.
2. Export-oriented industrialisation: China became the "workshop of the world", manufacturing goods for global markets. By 2023, China accounted for approximately 30% of global manufacturing output.
3. FDI attraction: Foreign TNCs invested heavily in China to access cheap labour. China received over $189 billion in FDI in 2023.
4. State-directed capitalism: Unlike pure free-market economies, China's government actively directs investment into strategic sectors (infrastructure, technology, green energy) through state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and industrial policy.
5. Infrastructure investment: China has built the world's largest high-speed rail network (over 42,000 km), more than the rest of the world combined.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

Launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping, the Belt and Road Initiative is the most ambitious infrastructure and investment programme in history. It aims to connect China with Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America through:

• The Silk Road Economic Belt: Overland routes through Central Asia to Europe, including railways, highways and pipelines.
• The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road: Sea routes through Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean, East Africa and the Mediterranean.

Key BRI statistics:

• Over 150 countries have signed BRI cooperation agreements.
• China has invested an estimated $1 trillion in BRI projects since 2013.
• Major projects include the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor ($62 billion), the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway in East Africa, and the Piraeus Port in Greece (operated by Chinese state-owned COSCO).

Critics argue the BRI is a vehicle for debt-trap diplomacy — lending to countries that cannot repay, then gaining control of strategic assets. The most cited example is Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, which was leased to China for 99 years in 2017 after Sri Lanka could not service its debts. However, many scholars dispute the debt-trap narrative, arguing that most BRI loans involve standard commercial terms and that recipient countries exercise agency in negotiations.

China's Military Modernisation

China has rapidly modernised its military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA):

• Defence spending has increased from approximately $30 billion in 2000 to an estimated **$30billionin2000toanestimated∗∗296 billion** in 2024 (though actual spending may be higher due to off-budget items).
• China has built 3 aircraft carriers (with more planned), modernised its nuclear arsenal (estimated at 500 warheads, expected to reach 1,000 by 2030), and developed advanced weapons systems including hypersonic missiles.
• China has established its first overseas military base in Djibouti (2017) and has built and militarised artificial islands in the South China Sea.
• The PLA Navy is now the world's largest by number of vessels (over 370 ships), though the US Navy remains superior in total tonnage and capability.

China's Soft Power

China has invested heavily in soft power, though with mixed results:

• Confucius Institutes: Over 500 institutes in 160+ countries, teaching Mandarin and Chinese culture (though many have been closed in Western countries due to concerns about political influence).
• Media: China Global Television Network (CGTN) broadcasts in English, French, Spanish, Arabic and Russian to a global audience. However, Chinese state media is often perceived as propaganda.
• Technology: Chinese tech companies (Huawei, TikTok/ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent) have significant global reach.
• Sport and culture: Hosting the 2008 and 2022 Olympics, the growth of Chinese cinema, and investment in foreign football clubs.

Despite these efforts, China's soft power remains weaker than its hard power. A 2024 Pew Research Centre survey found that views of China were negative in 24 of 35 countries surveyed, with concerns about authoritarianism, human rights (Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Tibet) and territorial aggressiveness.

graph TB
    A["CHINA'S RISE TO POWER"] --> B["Economic<br/>$17.7T GDP<br/>30% global manufacturing<br/>BRI ($1T investment)"]
    A --> C["Military<br/>$296B spending<br/>3 aircraft carriers<br/>Nuclear modernisation"]
    A --> D["Technological<br/>5G (Huawei)<br/>AI research<br/>Space programme"]
    A --> E["Soft Power<br/>Confucius Institutes<br/>CGTN, TikTok<br/>Olympics"]

    B --> F["Challenges<br/>Ageing population<br/>Property crisis<br/>Youth unemployment<br/>Negative perceptions"]
    C --> F
    D --> F
    E --> F

    style A fill:#c62828,color:#fff
    style F fill:#ef6c00,color:#fff

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India: The Next Emerging Superpower?

India is increasingly identified as a future superpower, with a unique combination of demographic, economic and democratic strengths.

Demographic Dividend