Synoptic Theme: Futures and Uncertainties

This lesson examines the third synoptic theme in the Edexcel A-Level Geography specification: Futures and Uncertainties. This theme requires students to consider what might happen in the future, why geographical predictions are uncertain, and how different stakeholders envision and plan for alternative futures. The central question is: What could the future look like, and why can we not be sure?

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Why Futures Matter in Geography

Geography is fundamentally concerned not just with understanding the present but with anticipating the future. Every geographical issue carries forward — climate change trajectories, population growth projections, urbanisation forecasts, resource depletion estimates and geopolitical scenarios all require forward-looking analysis.

However, the future is inherently uncertain. Human geography involves complex systems with countless interacting variables, feedback loops, tipping points and emergent behaviours that make precise prediction impossible. This does not mean we should not try to anticipate the future — but it does mean we must be honest about the limitations of our projections and consider multiple possible futures rather than a single predicted outcome.

Exam Tip: The Futures and Uncertainties theme is where the best students distinguish themselves. Weaker answers treat the future as a single, known trajectory ("climate change will cause sea levels to rise by 1 metre"). Stronger answers discuss MULTIPLE possible futures, explain WHY they differ and evaluate which is most likely and why. Using phrases like "the range of projections suggests...", "under a high-emissions scenario..." and "the key uncertainty is..." demonstrates sophisticated geographical thinking.

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Types of Future Scenario

Geographers and scientists use several approaches to thinking about the future:

Projections

A projection is a calculation of future conditions based on specific assumptions. It is NOT a prediction — it is a "what if" statement. For example:

• "If global emissions continue at the current rate (SSP5-8.5), global mean surface temperature will increase by 3.3-5.7°C by 2100."
• "If fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa decline as expected, the region's population will reach approximately 2.1 billion by 2050."

Projections are useful because they show the range of possible outcomes depending on assumptions. They are limited because the assumptions may not hold.

Scenarios

A scenario is a plausible description of a possible future, constructed to explore the implications of different choices. The IPCC uses Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as scenarios for climate change:

SSP	Name	Description	Temperature by 2100
SSP1-1.9	Sustainability	Rapid shift to sustainability; strong global cooperation; emissions peak before 2030	~1.0-1.8°C
SSP1-2.6	Low emissions	Gradual transition; moderate cooperation; emissions peak around 2030	~1.3-2.4°C
SSP2-4.5	Middle of the road	Current trends continue; some progress but uneven; emissions peak around 2040	~2.1-3.5°C
SSP3-7.0	Regional rivalry	Nationalism and competition; limited cooperation; slow emission reduction	~2.8-4.6°C
SSP5-8.5	Fossil-fuelled development	Continued fossil fuel dependence; rapid economic growth; no emission reduction	~3.3-5.7°C

graph TD
    A["Present Day<br/>(2024)"] --> B["SSP1-1.9<br/>Sustainability<br/>1.0-1.8°C"]
    A --> C["SSP2-4.5<br/>Middle of the Road<br/>2.1-3.5°C"]
    A --> D["SSP5-8.5<br/>Fossil-fuelled<br/>3.3-5.7°C"]

    B --> E["Manageable impacts;<br/>coral reefs survive;<br/>Arctic summer ice<br/>occasionally free"]
    C --> F["Significant impacts;<br/>most coral reefs lost;<br/>regular Arctic ice-free<br/>summers"]
    D --> G["Catastrophic impacts;<br/>major sea level rise;<br/>mass extinction;<br/>food system collapse"]

    style A fill:#616161,color:#fff
    style B fill:#2e7d32,color:#fff
    style C fill:#f9a825,color:#000
    style D fill:#c62828,color:#fff
    style E fill:#66bb6a,color:#000
    style F fill:#ffca28,color:#000
    style G fill:#ef5350,color:#fff

Forecasts

A forecast is a prediction of a specific future outcome, usually with a probability attached. Weather forecasts are the most familiar example, but geographical forecasts also include population forecasts, economic growth forecasts and hazard risk assessments. Forecasts are most reliable over short time horizons and become increasingly uncertain over longer periods.

Visions

A vision is a desired future state that actors work towards. Unlike projections and scenarios, visions are normative — they describe what SHOULD happen, not what WILL happen. Examples include:

• The UN's vision of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030
• The UK's vision of achieving net zero emissions by 2050
• A local council's vision for a regenerated town centre

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Sources of Uncertainty

Understanding WHY the future is uncertain is just as important as understanding WHAT might happen. Key sources of uncertainty in geography include:

1. Data Limitations

Geographical data is often incomplete, outdated or inaccurate:

• Climate data: Temperature records before the mid-19th century are sparse; ocean temperature measurements have significant gaps; satellite data only begins in 1979.
• Population data: Census data is collected only every 10 years in most countries; some countries (especially conflict-affected) have not conducted a census for decades; migration data is often estimated.
• Economic data: GDP measurements vary between countries; informal economies are largely unmeasured; data from authoritarian regimes may be unreliable.

2. Model Limitations

Scientific models are simplifications of reality:

• Climate models use grid cells that may be too large to capture local effects.
• Economic models assume rational behaviour that may not reflect reality.
• Population models assume current trends continue, but demographic transitions can accelerate or stall.
• Models cannot capture all feedback loops, tipping points and cascading effects.

3. Human Agency

Perhaps the greatest source of uncertainty is human decision-making:

• Will governments implement the policies they have pledged?
• Will new technologies emerge that transform energy systems?
• Will geopolitical conflicts disrupt trade, migration and cooperation?
• Will social movements shift public attitudes and demand radical change?
• Will black swan events (pandemics, financial crises, natural disasters) alter the trajectory?

4. Tipping Points

Tipping points are thresholds beyond which a system undergoes rapid, often irreversible change. Key geographical tipping points include: