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Urbanisation is one of the most significant global trends of the 21st century. For AQA GCSE Geography, you need to understand what urbanisation is, where it is happening fastest, and why rates differ between countries at different levels of development. This lesson lays the foundation for everything that follows.
Urbanisation is the increasing percentage of a country's population that lives in urban areas (towns and cities). It is measured as the urban population as a percentage of the total population.
Exam Tip: Do not confuse urbanisation with urban growth. Urban growth is the increase in the number of people living in cities. Urbanisation is the increase in the proportion of people living in cities. A country's cities could grow without the country urbanising if rural areas grow at the same rate.
| Statistic | Detail |
|---|---|
| World urban population (2020) | ~56% |
| World urban population (1950) | ~30% |
| Projected urban population (2050) | ~68% |
| Number of people moving to cities daily | ~200,000 |
| Most urbanised continent | South America (~84%) |
| Least urbanised continent | Africa (~44%) |
The world crossed the 50% threshold around 2007 — for the first time in human history, more people lived in cities than in rural areas.
The rate and stage of urbanisation varies enormously depending on a country's level of development. The AQA specification groups countries into three categories:
Urbanisation is closely linked to the Demographic Transition Model (DTM):
| DTM Stage | Urbanisation Characteristics |
|---|---|
| Stage 1 | Very low urbanisation; most people in subsistence agriculture |
| Stage 2 | Urbanisation begins; high natural increase fuels city growth |
| Stage 3 | Rapid urbanisation; rural-to-urban migration accelerates |
| Stage 4 | High urbanisation; growth slows; counter-urbanisation may begin |
| Stage 5 | Stable or declining urban populations in some cities |
Exam Tip: If asked to explain why urbanisation rates differ between HICs and LICs, link your answer to the DTM. HICs went through rapid urbanisation decades or centuries ago (Stages 2–3). LICs and NEEs are going through it now.
Urbanisation is driven by two main processes:
People move from the countryside to cities. This is driven by a combination of push and pull factors:
Push factors (reasons to leave rural areas):
Pull factors (reasons to move to cities):
graph TD
A[Rural Push Factors] --> E[Rural-to-Urban Migration]
B[Urban Pull Factors] --> E
A --> A1[Lack of jobs]
A --> A2[Poor services]
A --> A3[Natural disasters]
B --> B1[Better employment]
B --> B2[Access to education]
B --> B3[Improved healthcare]
E --> F[Urbanisation increases]
Once people move to cities, the urban population continues to grow through natural increase (birth rate minus death rate). In many LICs and NEEs, urban populations are young, so the birth rate is high and the death rate is relatively low.
Exam Tip: When explaining urbanisation in LICs and NEEs, always mention both rural-to-urban migration and natural increase. Many students forget natural increase — it accounts for around 60% of urban growth in some African cities.
In many HICs, a reverse process is occurring:
Counter-urbanisation is the movement of people out of cities and into the surrounding countryside and small towns.
graph LR
A[Urbanisation] --> B[Suburbanisation]
B --> C[Counter-urbanisation]
C --> D[Re-urbanisation]
D --> A
If presented with a world map showing urbanisation rates, you should be able to describe the following pattern:
This pattern reflects the link between urbanisation and economic development. Countries that industrialised earlier tend to be more urbanised.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Urbanisation | The increasing proportion of a population living in urban areas |
| Urban growth | The increase in the number of people living in urban areas |
| Rural-to-urban migration | The movement of people from the countryside to cities |
| Natural increase | Population growth caused by birth rate exceeding death rate |
| Counter-urbanisation | The movement of people from cities to rural areas |
| Primate city | A city that is disproportionately larger than all other cities in a country |
| Megacity | A city with a population of more than 10 million people |
Exam Tip: In a 6-mark or 9-mark question on urbanisation, always use specific data (percentages, dates, examples) to support your points. Vague statements like "lots of people move to cities" will not score highly.
Urbanisation is best understood through concrete examples. Two of AQA's key reference cities — one LIC/NEE and one HIC — illustrate the contrasting urbanisation patterns that you need to grasp.
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (NEE). Brazil is around 88% urbanised — one of the most urbanised countries in the Americas. Rio has a metropolitan population of around 13 million. Rio's urbanisation accelerated in the 20th century, driven by rural-to-urban migration from the drought-prone Nordeste region. Migrants arrived faster than formal housing could be built, producing Rio's vast system of favelas — around 1,000 favelas house 22% of Rio's population (1.4 million people). Rocinha, the largest, has over 70,000 residents on a single steep hillside. Rio's urbanisation illustrates the classic NEE pattern — rapid growth through rural-to-urban migration, high natural increase (Brazilian TFR was ~3 in 1990 but has fallen to ~1.7 today), and informal settlement formation on marginal land. Management has focused on slum upgrading — the Favela-Bairro programme (1995-2008) and the Morar Carioca scheme under Brazil's PAC (Programa de Aceleracao do Crescimento) provide legal land titles, paved roads, and sewers.
London, UK (HIC). The UK is around 84% urbanised — typical of HICs. London has around 9 million residents (Greater London) and 14 million in the wider metropolitan area. London's urbanisation happened in the 19th century — the city grew from 1 million in 1800 to 6.5 million by 1900 as migrants flooded from the countryside and Ireland to work in docks, factories, and services (pull factors) and as mechanisation and the Corn Laws made rural life unsustainable (push factors). By the mid-20th century, London had already gone through full urbanisation and began to experience counter-urbanisation (people moving out to New Towns like Stevenage, Harlow, Milton Keynes). Since the 1980s, London has re-urbanised, driven by international migration and gentrification.
Comparison. The two cases show: Rio went through rapid urbanisation in the mid-to-late 20th century (and is still urbanising); London urbanised in the 19th century and is now in a mature phase of re-urbanisation. Rio has 22% informal settlement; London has essentially none. Rio's challenges are access to basic services; London's are cost, inequality, and pollution. These differences reflect the contrasting stages of urbanisation, not different processes — the same push/pull factors operate in both, at different times.
Africa is the least urbanised continent (around 44%) but also the fastest urbanising. Nigeria's Lagos, covered in later lessons, illustrates this dynamic. Other African megacities and rapidly growing cities include Kinshasa (DRC, ~15 million), Cairo (Egypt, ~21 million), Luanda (Angola, ~8 million), Nairobi (Kenya, ~5 million), and Johannesburg/Gauteng (South Africa, ~10 million). African urbanisation is driven by the same push-pull and natural-increase dynamics seen globally, but it is happening at an unprecedented speed — the UN projects that Africa's urban population will triple by 2050.
A widespread student misconception is that urbanisation simply means rural-to-urban migration. This is incomplete. Urbanisation has two drivers: migration (people moving from rural to urban areas) and natural increase (urban births exceeding deaths). In many African megacities, natural increase contributes 50-70% of urban growth — i.e. the urban population is growing faster from births than from migration. Another related misconception is confusing urbanisation (the proportion of people in cities) with urban growth (the absolute number). A country can have high urban growth without high urbanisation if rural areas grow just as fast. Scoring well requires distinguishing these precisely.
A typical 9-mark question might read: "Explain why rates of urbanisation vary between countries at different levels of development." (9 marks)
Grade 3-4 response (Level 1, ~2-3 marks). "Urbanisation is when more people live in cities. In rich countries most people already live in cities. In poor countries people move to cities to find work. Africa has lots of people moving to cities. Overall rates are different because of development."
AQA mark-scheme commentary: Basic definition and general contrast. No figures, no named countries or cities. No explanation of mechanisms. Likely scores 2-3/9 at Level 1.
Grade 5-6 response (Level 2, ~5-6 marks). "Urbanisation rates vary with development. HICs like the UK (84% urban) and USA (83%) are already highly urbanised because they industrialised in the 1800s during the Industrial Revolution. Their rates are now slow or stable because of counter-urbanisation — people moving out to suburbs. NEEs like China (64%) and Brazil (88%) are urbanising rapidly today, driven by industrialisation, migration, and high natural increase. LICs like Ethiopia (22%) are still mostly rural but urbanising fast. The Demographic Transition Model explains this — HICs are in stages 4-5, NEEs in stages 3-4, and LICs in stages 2-3."
AQA mark-scheme commentary: Strong Level 2. Specific percentages and named countries. Uses the DTM framework. Lacks a final synthesising conclusion. Likely scores 6-7/9.
Grade 7-9 response (Level 3, 7-9 marks). "Rates of urbanisation vary dramatically with level of development, and this can be explained by linking the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), economic development, and migration dynamics.
HICs like the UK (84% urban), USA (83%), Germany (77%), and Japan (91%) are already highly urbanised because they went through rapid urbanisation during the Industrial Revolution (1750-1900). Today they are in DTM stages 4-5 — low birth and death rates, slow population growth, and often counter-urbanisation (people moving from cities to suburbs and rural areas, e.g. London lost population from 1939 to the 1980s as residents moved to New Towns like Milton Keynes). Rates of urbanisation in HICs are therefore slow or stable.
NEEs like China (64%), Brazil (88%), Nigeria (53%), and India (35%) are urbanising rapidly — typically at 2-5% per year. They are in DTM stages 2-3, with high natural increase and large rural-to-urban migration flows. Drivers include industrialisation (Chinese manufacturing, Brazilian services, Nigerian oil), globalisation (TNC investment), and rural push factors (drought, land pressure, low wages). Lagos alone has grown from 760,000 in 1960 to around 16-21 million today.
LICs like Ethiopia (22%), Uganda (25%), and Malawi (18%) remain predominantly rural, but urbanisation is accelerating. They are in DTM stages 2-3 with very high natural increase.
Overall, the pattern reflects the stage that a country's economy has reached. HICs urbanised first, in the 19th century; NEEs are doing so now; LICs are at the beginning of the process. The same push-pull and natural-increase dynamics operate in all cases — they simply occur at different historical moments. This explains why rates differ so dramatically, and why by 2050 most of the world's urban growth will take place in Africa and Asia."
AQA mark-scheme commentary: Full Level 3. Specific percentages throughout (84%, 83%, 77%, 64%, 88%, 53%, 35%, 22%, 25%, 18%), named countries and cities, DTM framework applied, historical context, and a synthesising conclusion. Likely scores 9/9.
This content is aligned with the AQA GCSE Geography (8035) specification, Paper 2: Challenges in the human environment — Urban issues and challenges. For the most accurate and up-to-date information, please refer to the official AQA specification document.