Global Patterns of Urbanisation

Urbanisation is one of the most significant global trends of the 21st century. For AQA GCSE Geography, you need to understand what urbanisation is, where it is happening fastest, and why rates differ between countries at different levels of development. This lesson lays the foundation for everything that follows.

What Is Urbanisation?

Urbanisation is the increasing percentage of a country's population that lives in urban areas (towns and cities). It is measured as the urban population as a percentage of the total population.

Exam Tip: Do not confuse urbanisation with urban growth. Urban growth is the increase in the number of people living in cities. Urbanisation is the increase in the proportion of people living in cities. A country's cities could grow without the country urbanising if rural areas grow at the same rate.

Global Urbanisation: Key Statistics

Statistic	Detail
World urban population (2020)	~56%
World urban population (1950)	~30%
Projected urban population (2050)	~68%
Number of people moving to cities daily	~200,000
Most urbanised continent	South America (~84%)
Least urbanised continent	Africa (~44%)

The world crossed the 50% threshold around 2007 — for the first time in human history, more people lived in cities than in rural areas.

Urbanisation and Level of Development

The rate and stage of urbanisation varies enormously depending on a country's level of development. The AQA specification groups countries into three categories:

High-Income Countries (HICs)

Already highly urbanised (typically 75–90%).
Urbanisation happened mainly during the Industrial Revolution (18th–19th centuries).
Rate of urbanisation is now slow or even stable — some people are moving out of cities (counter-urbanisation).
Examples: UK (84%), USA (83%), Germany (77%).

Newly Emerging Economies (NEEs)

Rapid urbanisation is happening right now.
Driven by industrialisation, rural-to-urban migration, and natural increase.
Urban populations growing by 3–5% per year in many NEEs.
Examples: Nigeria (53%), China (64%), India (35%), Brazil (88%).

Low-Income Countries (LICs)

Still predominantly rural, but urbanisation is accelerating.
Many LICs have a single primate city that dominates the urban system.
Growth is often unplanned, leading to informal settlements.
Examples: Ethiopia (22%), Uganda (25%), Malawi (18%).

The Demographic Transition and Urbanisation

Urbanisation is closely linked to the Demographic Transition Model (DTM):

DTM Stage	Urbanisation Characteristics
Stage 1	Very low urbanisation; most people in subsistence agriculture
Stage 2	Urbanisation begins; high natural increase fuels city growth
Stage 3	Rapid urbanisation; rural-to-urban migration accelerates
Stage 4	High urbanisation; growth slows; counter-urbanisation may begin
Stage 5	Stable or declining urban populations in some cities

Exam Tip: If asked to explain why urbanisation rates differ between HICs and LICs, link your answer to the DTM. HICs went through rapid urbanisation decades or centuries ago (Stages 2–3). LICs and NEEs are going through it now.

Causes of Urbanisation

Urbanisation is driven by two main processes:

1. Rural-to-Urban Migration

People move from the countryside to cities. This is driven by a combination of push and pull factors:

Push factors (reasons to leave rural areas):

Lack of employment or low wages
Poor services — limited schools, hospitals, clean water
Natural disasters — drought, flooding, desertification
Land pressure — subdivision of farmland, land grabs
Conflict or insecurity

Pull factors (reasons to move to cities):

Better job opportunities — factories, services, informal economy
Higher wages
Better education and healthcare
Perception of a better quality of life
Social and cultural attractions

graph TD
    A[Rural Push Factors] --> E[Rural-to-Urban Migration]
    B[Urban Pull Factors] --> E
    A --> A1[Lack of jobs]
    A --> A2[Poor services]
    A --> A3[Natural disasters]
    B --> B1[Better employment]
    B --> B2[Access to education]
    B --> B3[Improved healthcare]
    E --> F[Urbanisation increases]

2. Natural Increase

Once people move to cities, the urban population continues to grow through natural increase (birth rate minus death rate). In many LICs and NEEs, urban populations are young, so the birth rate is high and the death rate is relatively low.

Exam Tip: When explaining urbanisation in LICs and NEEs, always mention both rural-to-urban migration and natural increase. Many students forget natural increase — it accounts for around 60% of urban growth in some African cities.

Counter-Urbanisation

In many HICs, a reverse process is occurring:

Counter-urbanisation is the movement of people out of cities and into the surrounding countryside and small towns.

Causes of counter-urbanisation:

Improved transport links (motorways, rail) allow commuting
Advances in technology — remote working
Desire for larger homes, gardens, and a quieter lifestyle
Perceived problems in cities — crime, congestion, pollution
Retirement migration to rural and coastal areas

Effects of counter-urbanisation:

Rural areas: house prices rise, services improve, demographic change, loss of rural character
Urban areas: urban decline, dereliction, loss of tax revenue, "doughnut effect"

graph LR
    A[Urbanisation] --> B[Suburbanisation]
    B --> C[Counter-urbanisation]
    C --> D[Re-urbanisation]
    D --> A

Patterns of Urbanisation on a World Map

If presented with a world map showing urbanisation rates, you should be able to describe the following pattern:

Most urbanised: North America, Europe, South America, Japan, Australia
Least urbanised: Sub-Saharan Africa, South and South-East Asia
Fastest-growing: Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia

This pattern reflects the link between urbanisation and economic development. Countries that industrialised earlier tend to be more urbanised.

Key Vocabulary

Term	Definition
Urbanisation	The increasing proportion of a population living in urban areas
Urban growth	The increase in the number of people living in urban areas
Rural-to-urban migration	The movement of people from the countryside to cities
Natural increase	Population growth caused by birth rate exceeding death rate
Counter-urbanisation	The movement of people from cities to rural areas
Primate city	A city that is disproportionately larger than all other cities in a country
Megacity	A city with a population of more than 10 million people

Summary

Urbanisation is a global trend, but rates vary enormously.
HICs are already highly urbanised; LICs and NEEs are urbanising rapidly.
The main causes are rural-to-urban migration and natural increase.
Counter-urbanisation is a feature of many HICs.
Understanding these patterns and causes is essential for the case studies that follow.

Exam Tip: In a 6-mark or 9-mark question on urbanisation, always use specific data (percentages, dates, examples) to support your points. Vague statements like "lots of people move to cities" will not score highly.