Contested Spheres of Influence

This lesson examines the flashpoints and contested spaces where superpower interests collide — from the South China Sea to the Arctic, from Ukraine to cyberspace. You will analyse how territorial disputes, resource competition, and ideological rivalry create zones of geopolitical tension, and evaluate the risk of escalation. This lesson addresses the Edexcel Enquiry Question: "What are the implications of the changing balance of power for the future of the global order?"

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The South China Sea

The South China Sea is one of the world's most strategically significant and contested waterways, and a primary flashpoint in the US-China rivalry.

Why It Matters

• Trade routes: Approximately $5.3 trillion in annual trade passes through the South China Sea — roughly one-third of global maritime commerce.
• Resources: The seabed may contain up to 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
• Fishing: Approximately 12% of the world's fish catch comes from the South China Sea, supporting the livelihoods of millions.
• Strategic location: The sea connects the Pacific and Indian Oceans through the Strait of Malacca — critical for China's energy imports.

The Dispute

China claims approximately 90% of the South China Sea based on its "Nine-Dash Line" — a demarcation that was first published in 1947. This claim overlaps with the claims of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.

Since 2013, China has constructed artificial islands on several reefs and shoals in the Spratly and Paracel archipelagos, building:

• Military airstrips capable of handling fighter jets and bombers.
• Radar installations, surface-to-air missile systems and anti-ship cruise missiles.
• Port facilities and supply depots.

In 2016, an international tribunal under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) ruled that China's Nine-Dash Line had no legal basis and that China had violated the Philippines' sovereign rights (Philippines v. China, 2016). China rejected the ruling, calling it "null and void."

US Response

The USA, while not a claimant, has conducted regular Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) — sending warships through the South China Sea to challenge China's claims and assert the right of free passage. The USA has also strengthened military alliances with the Philippines, Japan, Australia and South Korea, and formed the AUKUS security pact (2021) with Australia and the UK, which includes providing Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.

graph TB
    A["SOUTH CHINA SEA<br/>CONTESTED SPACE"] --> B["$5.3T annual trade<br/>1/3 of global<br/>maritime commerce"]
    A --> C["Oil & gas reserves<br/>11 billion barrels oil<br/>190 TCF gas"]
    A --> D["Military<br/>installations<br/>on artificial islands"]
    A --> E["Overlapping<br/>territorial claims<br/>6 countries"]

    F["CHINA"] -->|"Nine-Dash Line<br/>Island building<br/>Military bases"| A
    G["USA"] -->|"FONOPs<br/>AUKUS<br/>Alliance building"| A

    style A fill:#e65100,color:#fff
    style F fill:#c62828,color:#fff
    style G fill:#1565c0,color:#fff

Exam Tip: The South China Sea is the single best case study for illustrating contested spheres of influence in the contemporary world. It combines territorial disputes, resource competition, military posturing, international law, alliance politics and the risk of great-power conflict. Be prepared to discuss it in detail with specific data.

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Taiwan

Taiwan is arguably the world's most dangerous potential flashpoint — a place where US-China rivalry could escalate to direct military conflict.

Background

Taiwan (officially the Republic of China) has been governed independently since 1949, when the Nationalist government fled mainland China after losing the Chinese Civil War. The People's Republic of China (PRC) considers Taiwan a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland — by force if necessary.

Why Taiwan Matters

1. Semiconductors: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) produces approximately 90% of the world's most advanced chips. A conflict over Taiwan would devastate the global technology supply chain.
2. Strategic location: Taiwan sits at the centre of the "First Island Chain" — a line of islands running from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines that, from China's perspective, constrains its access to the open Pacific.
3. Ideological significance: Taiwan is a successful democracy of 24 million people. Its existence as a separate, democratic Chinese society contradicts the CPC's claim that authoritarianism is the only governance model suited to Chinese culture.

The US Position

The USA maintains a policy of "strategic ambiguity" — it does not formally recognise Taiwan as an independent state (it recognises the PRC as the sole government of China) but maintains unofficial relations through the Taiwan Relations Act (1979), which commits the USA to providing Taiwan with defensive weapons and maintaining the capacity to defend it. President Biden stated on multiple occasions that the USA would defend Taiwan if attacked, though the White House subsequently clarified that official policy had not changed.

The Risk of Conflict

Military analysts widely consider a Chinese invasion of Taiwan to be one of the most significant geopolitical risks of the coming decades. China's military modernisation, including the construction of amphibious assault ships and the world's largest navy by vessel count, is seen as preparation for a potential Taiwan scenario. A conflict could draw in the USA, Japan, Australia and potentially other allies, with catastrophic consequences for the global economy and security order.

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The Arctic: A New Frontier of Competition

The Arctic is emerging as a contested space as climate change opens new shipping routes and exposes previously inaccessible resources.

Why the Arctic Matters

• Resources: The Arctic is estimated to contain approximately 30% of the world's undiscovered natural gas and 13% of undiscovered oil (US Geological Survey).
• Shipping routes: The Northern Sea Route (along Russia's Arctic coast) could reduce shipping times between Asia and Europe by 40% compared to the Suez Canal route. As ice retreats, these routes are becoming increasingly navigable.
• Strategic position: The Arctic provides the shortest missile trajectory between Russia/North America; submarine-launched ballistic missiles in Arctic waters are a key component of nuclear deterrence.

Competing Claims