Emerging Powers and Development

This lesson examines how the rise of emerging powers — particularly China — is reshaping development in the Global South. You will analyse Chinese investment in Africa, the debt-trap diplomacy debate, development aid as soft power, South-South cooperation, and alternative development models. This lesson addresses the Edexcel Enquiry Question: "What are the consequences of superpower actions for people and the physical environment?"

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Emerging Powers and the Developing World

The rise of emerging powers — especially China, but also India, Turkey, Gulf states and Brazil — has fundamentally changed the development landscape for low- and middle-income countries. For decades, development was dominated by Western institutions (World Bank, IMF) and Western donors (USA, UK, EU). Developing countries had limited alternatives: if they wanted investment, loans or aid, they largely had to accept Western conditions (structural adjustment, governance reforms, human rights requirements).

The rise of alternative sources of investment and aid — particularly from China — has given developing countries more options and greater bargaining power. This is sometimes described as the "Beijing Consensus" versus the "Washington Consensus".

Feature	Washington Consensus	Beijing Consensus
Origin	IMF, World Bank, US Treasury (1980s)	China's development model (2000s)
Economic policy	Free markets, privatisation, deregulation, trade liberalisation	State-directed capitalism, industrial policy, strategic SOEs
Conditionality	Strict: governance reforms, democracy promotion, anti-corruption, human rights	Minimal: "non-interference in internal affairs"
Focus	Macroeconomic stability, fiscal discipline	Infrastructure, export-oriented growth, technology transfer
Criticism	Imposes Western values; SAPs caused poverty; one-size-fits-all	Enables authoritarian regimes; creates debt dependency; environmental damage

Exam Tip: The Washington Consensus vs Beijing Consensus framework is an excellent evaluative tool for this topic. It allows you to compare Western and Chinese approaches to development without taking a simplistic "one is good, one is bad" position. The best answers will argue that both models have strengths and weaknesses and that developing countries benefit from having the option to choose.

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Chinese Investment in Africa

China's engagement with Africa has grown dramatically since 2000 and is the most studied example of an emerging power reshaping development patterns.

Scale of Chinese Engagement

• Trade: China-Africa trade reached approximately $282 billion in 2023. China has been Africa's largest trading partner since 2009.
• Investment: Chinese FDI stock in Africa exceeded $43 billion by 2023.
• Lending: China lent approximately $170 billion to African governments and state-owned enterprises between 2000 and 2022 (Johns Hopkins CARI data).
• Infrastructure: Chinese firms have built railways, roads, ports, dams, power plants and telecommunications networks across the continent.

Case Study: Chinese Investment in Kenya

Kenya illustrates both the benefits and controversies of Chinese engagement:

• Standard Gauge Railway (SGR): A 472 km railway connecting Nairobi to Mombasa, built by the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) at a cost of approximately $3.6 billion (financed by a Chinese loan covering 90% of the cost). Opened in 2017, it reduced travel time from 12 hours to 4.5 hours.

  • Benefits: Reduced transport costs, improved connectivity, created approximately 46,000 local jobs during construction, boosted trade between Nairobi and Mombasa.
  • Criticisms: The railway cuts through Nairobi National Park (environmental concerns); loan terms are opaque; the railway has operated at a loss; concerns about Kenya's ability to repay the debt.

• Lamu Port (LAPSSET Corridor): A massive infrastructure project to build a new deep-water port at Lamu, connected by road, rail and pipeline to South Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya's interior. China is a major financial partner.

Case Study: Chinese Investment in Ethiopia

Ethiopia has been one of the largest recipients of Chinese investment in Africa:

• Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway: A 756 km electrified railway connecting Ethiopia's capital to the port of Djibouti, built by Chinese firms at a cost of approximately $4 billion. It replaced a century-old French-built railway and handles a significant share of Ethiopian imports.
• Industrial parks: China has helped establish industrial parks (e.g. Hawassa Industrial Park) to attract manufacturing investment, following China's own SEZ model.
• Telecommunications: Huawei and ZTE have built much of Ethiopia's telecommunications infrastructure.

Case Study: Chinese Investment in Zambia

Zambia illustrates the potential risks of Chinese engagement:

• China is the largest foreign investor in Zambia's copper mining sector, with investments exceeding $5 billion.
• Chinese loans financed roads, a hospital and the Kafue Gorge Lower hydropower station.
• However, Zambia became the first African country to default on its debt during the COVID-19 pandemic (November 2020). Approximately one-third of Zambia's external debt was owed to Chinese lenders.
• The debt restructuring process was prolonged and complex, highlighting the opacity of Chinese lending terms and the challenges of coordinating debt relief between China and Western creditors (Paris Club).

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The Debt-Trap Diplomacy Debate

Debt-trap diplomacy is the allegation that China deliberately lends to countries that cannot repay, with the strategic intention of seizing assets or gaining political leverage when borrowers default.

The Hambantota Port Case

The most cited example is Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka:

• China lent Sri Lanka approximately $1.4 billion to build the port, which opened in 2010.
• The port attracted very little shipping traffic and generated insufficient revenue to service the debt.
• In 2017, Sri Lanka leased the port to a Chinese state-owned company (China Merchants Port Holdings) for 99 years in a debt-for-equity swap.
• Critics argue this was the intended outcome — China now controls a strategically located port on a major Indian Ocean shipping route.

Counter-Arguments

Many scholars dispute the debt-trap narrative: