Expressing Probability

One of the most distinctive uses of the futuro semplice and condizionale in Italian is to express probability, conjecture, and speculation. Rather than stating a fact, you use these tenses to say what you think is probably true.

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The Future of Probability (Futuro Epistemico)

The futuro semplice can express a guess or conjecture about the present moment. This is called the futuro epistemico or "future of probability."

When you use the future tense but are NOT talking about the future, you are expressing "I wonder" or "it is probably."

Examples

Italian	Literal Translation	Real Meaning
Che ore saranno?	What time will it be?	I wonder what time it is.
Sarà mezzanotte.	It will be midnight.	It is probably midnight.
Avrà trent'anni.	He will have thirty years.	He is probably about thirty.
Chi sarà a quest'ora?	Who will it be at this hour?	I wonder who that is at this hour.
Starà dormendo.	He will be sleeping.	He is probably sleeping.
Dove saranno le chiavi?	Where will the keys be?	I wonder where the keys are.
Costerà un patrimonio.	It will cost a fortune.	It probably costs a fortune.

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How It Works

The futuro epistemico expresses uncertainty about the present:

Normal Statement (Certain)	Future of Probability (Uncertain)
Marco è a casa. (Marco is at home.)	Marco sarà a casa. (Marco is probably at home.)
Sono le tre. (It is three o'clock.)	Saranno le tre. (It is probably three.)
Ha fame. (He is hungry.)	Avrà fame. (He is probably hungry.)
Costa molto. (It costs a lot.)	Costerà molto. (It probably costs a lot.)

Tip: Context determines whether the future tense means "will" (actual future) or "probably" (speculation about the present). Time expressions and context make it clear.

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The Conditional of Probability

The condizionale presente can express conjecture about the past. It suggests what was probably true:

Italian	Literal Translation	Real Meaning
Sarebbero state le tre quando è arrivato.	They would have been three...	It was probably three when he arrived.
Costerebbe molto a quei tempi.	It would cost a lot...	It probably cost a lot back then.
Avrebbe avuto vent'anni.	He would have had twenty...	He was probably about twenty.

Note: For past probability, Italian also frequently uses the futuro anteriore (future perfect: sarà stato, avrà avuto), which we will touch on in the review lesson.

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Common Probability Expressions

Italian has many adverbs and phrases that express degrees of probability. These can be used with or alongside the future/conditional of probability.

High Probability

Italian	English
sicuramente	certainly, surely
senza dubbio	without doubt
di sicuro	for sure
certamente	certainly
senz'altro	undoubtedly

Moderate Probability

Italian	English
probabilmente	probably
molto probabilmente	very probably
quasi sicuramente	almost certainly

Medium Probability

Italian	English
forse	perhaps, maybe
può darsi (che + subjunctive)	it may be that
magari	maybe, hopefully
è possibile (che + subjunctive)	it is possible that

Low Probability

Italian	English
difficilmente	with difficulty, unlikely
è improbabile (che + subjunctive)	it is unlikely that
dubito (che + subjunctive)	I doubt that
non credo (che + subjunctive)	I do not think that

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Using Probability Expressions in Sentences

With the Indicative

Several probability expressions are followed by the indicative mood: