Evaluating Conclusions: Are They Justified?

The ultimate question in critical thinking is whether a conclusion is justified by the evidence and reasoning provided. On the LNAT, several question types test this directly: "Does the evidence support the author's conclusion?", "Is the author's conclusion justified?", or "Which of the following conclusions is best supported by the passage?" This lesson provides a framework for making this judgement systematically.

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What Does "Justified" Mean?

A conclusion is justified when the evidence and reasoning provided give sufficient grounds for accepting it. This does not mean the conclusion must be proven beyond all doubt — very few arguments in real life achieve certainty. It means the evidence makes the conclusion reasonable to accept.

A conclusion is unjustified when:

• The evidence does not support it
• The evidence supports a different or weaker conclusion
• The reasoning contains a logical flaw
• The conclusion goes significantly beyond what the evidence establishes

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The Gap Analysis Framework

To evaluate whether a conclusion is justified, systematically examine the gap between what the evidence shows and what the conclusion claims.